Zogby NH Tracker

As far as I'm concerned, the Zogby tracking poll is the one to watch. In 2000, the Zogby poll was the ONLY poll correctly to forecast McCain's defeat of GWB. Looking at today's poll, Clark and Kerry are in a statistical tie for second place, while Dean maintains a miniscule lead in 1st. The thing about NH being so close to Massachusetts, these people already know John Kerry. They have probably already decided whether or not they like him. The issue now will be electability. What, precisely, is it about Kerry that makes people think he can defeat GWB? All of the Democratic frontrunners are pretty close on domestic policy (except Dean, who would roll back ALL of Bush's tax cuts, including the ones that help middle-income families). So, what sets them apart? National Security/Iraq. All of the Democratic frontrunners in NH agree that Afghanistan was a good thing. All of the Democractic frontrunners in NH now make noises that are critical of the U.S. invasion of Iraq. Dean has been consistent in his criticism. Clark has been consistent in his position, which cannot properly be characterized as "anti-war": Clark has stated, as early as 2002, that war should have been on the table, but only as a last resort after all diplomatic, UN-sponsored means had been exhausted, and even then war should only have been carried out with a broad coalition, including (if not under the direction of) NATO. Kerry makes a lot of noise about how "reckless" GWB was to go into Iraq. The problem is, Kerry VOTED for the resolution that gave Bush a blank check to do just that. In any event, there's still a week to go in New Hampshire, and Zogby believes that there will be a lot of movement this week, just like there was in Iowa. As we all noticed in Iowa, the perceived underdogs (Kerry and Edwards) defeated the presumed frontrunner (who was, in many places, already being described as the inevitable nominee), Dean. So, a lot can happen in a week. Let's do everything we can to make sure the General benefits from it. Write letters or make phone calls to NH. Go to this website: http://www.nhclark04.com to find out what and how.